ABSTRACT
The emergence of a constantly mutating novel virus has led to considerable public anxiety amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Information seeking is a common strategy to cope with pandemic anxiety. Using Google Trends analysis, this study investigated public interest in COVID-19 variants and its temporal associations with the disease-prevention measure of vaccination during the initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout period (13 December 2020 to 25 September 2021). Public interest was operationalized as the relative search volume of online queries of variant-related terms in the countries first affected by the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants: the UK, South Africa, and India, respectively. The results show that public interest in COVID-19 variants was greater during the Delta-variant-predominant period than before this period. The time-series cross-correlation analysis revealed positive temporal associations (i.e., greater such public interest was accompanied by an increase in national vaccination rate) tended to occur more frequently and at earlier time lags than the negative temporal associations. This study yielded new findings regarding the temporal changes in public interest in COVID-19 variants, and the between-country variations in these public interest changes can be explained by differences in the rate and pace of vaccination among the countries of interest.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is one of the biggest pandemics in human history, along with other disease pandemics, such as the H1N1 influenza A, bubonic plague, and smallpox pandemics. This study is a small contribution that tries to find contrasted formulas to alleviate global suffering and guarantee a more manageable future. OBJECTIVE: In this study, a statistical approach was proposed to study the correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 in Spain and search data provided by Google Trends. METHODS: We assessed the linear correlation between Google Trends search data and the data provided by the National Center of Epidemiology in Spain-which is dependent on the Instituto de Salud Carlos III-regarding the number of COVID-19 cases reported with a certain time lag. These data enabled the identification of anticipatory patterns. RESULTS: In response to the ongoing outbreak, our results demonstrate that by using our correlation test, the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic can be predicted in Spain up to 11 days in advance. CONCLUSIONS: During the epidemic, Google Trends offers the possibility to preempt health care decisions in real time by tracking people's concerns through their search patterns. This can be of great help given the critical, if not dramatic need for complementary monitoring approaches that work on a population level and inform public health decisions in real time. This study of Google search patterns, which was motivated by the fears of individuals in the face of a pandemic, can be useful in anticipating the development of the pandemic.